Welcome to our #172 weekly newsletter.
“For women taking control of their financial future”
-Jana Hlistova
From The Purse
In this week’s newsletter, we highlight crypto billionaire bull Mike Novogratz’s interview where he said that the US is headed for a credit crisis, a substantial economic slowdown (but) which will only make the bitcoin business case even stronger.
Don’t forget to listen to The Purse Podcast interview with Tracy Lewis, who is a global brand CEO, Chair, NED, investor, advisor, mentor, and award winning entrepreneur.
We talk about how to build a global lingerie brand, ESG, impact investing, women in the workplace, how to start angel investing and more.
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And you can review the news in brief so you stay on top of global financial, economic and investing trends.
I hope you enjoy this week’s newsletter.
Until next week,
Jana
Mike Novogratz: US headed for a credit crisis and the bitcoin business case is getting stronger
The crypto billionaire bull said that the crypto industry has ‘re-galvanised’ as a result of the US banking crisis and aggressive increase in interest rates.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has said that the US is heading for a credit crisis, a substantial economic slowdown which is likely to build the bitcoin business case, as reported by Market Insider.
The crypto billionaire bull said that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the aggressive interest rate hikes, has highlighted bitcoin’s initial use case- ‘as a safer alternative to the traditional monetary system’.
He believes that this has ‘re-galvanised’ the industry ‘by the reality that we have too much debt in the US and abroad…’, he told Bloomberg:
‘You're seeing that in this balance between a Federal Reserve [that's been] fighting inflation and maybe moving rates a little faster than the market participants knew how to manage," he added. "Now, we're going to have a credit crisis in the US and the economy is going to slow... It's going to slow pretty dramatically.’
Crypto markets have been on a tear…
Despite the downturn in risk assets and the increase in the regulatory scrutiny on crypto exchanges including Coinbase, Binance and Kraken, the crypto market has surged.
Bitcoin and ethereum are up 51% and 37% in the past three months, according to Messari, with the overall crypto market cap at $1.28 trillion.
Bitcoin has surged to $31,000 in the last week and ethereum has jumped to $2,100+ following the Shapella upgrade.
Macro investors including Raoul Pal have said we are in a crypto bull market which will continue into the bitcoin halving (April or May 2024) and until it peaks in 2025.
News in Brief
Financial news
US Fed keeps May interest rate increase on the table despite Central bank’s economists forecast a recession beginning later this year due to fallout from banking system turmoil. Markets see the probability for a May hike at 74% but rate cuts later in year.
US 2 year yields tumble by 14bps to 3.88% following softer US inflation data, reflecting expectations for rate cuts down the line. But the probability for a 25bp rate hike in May remains unch at 75%.
When good news is bad news: Fed tightening assumptions advanced – the market is pricing in 81% odds of a 25bp hike on 5/3 w/year-end Funds Rate of 4.48% (up 14bp vs. Thursday) due to solid bank earnings, which could cause the Fed to focus on inflation.
Collapsing money supply alarms economists. US M2 growth plunges to -2.4% YoY in Feb, lowest in history, in a warning of recession & deflation.
The disinflationary process in the US seems intact. Core US CPI comes in right on target at +5.6% YoY and 0.4% MoM. The headline figure is just a tad under forecast at 5.0% YoY vs 5.1% expected and 0.1% MoM vs +0.2% expected.
US March PPI fell 0.5% MoM, below estimate of 0%, in another sign that US inflation may have peaked.
Economist Nassim Roubini warns of painful stagflation caused by new cold war with China & Balkanisation of global economy. The demise of the US dollar would be bad news for Americans, who can only finance their twin deficits thanks to willingness of other countries to buy US assets.
Retail investors are sitting on heavy losses despite a 2023 stock rally. The average retail investor portfolio is down by ~27% since November 2021. Since then, stocks have staged 4 double-digit bear market rallies. Tech stocks in particular rallied >20% -twice.
The pound has climbed to a 10-month high against the US dollar, as signs build that inflationary pressures in the US are easing.
Shoppers in Great Britain switch to frozen food amid cost of living crisis. Food price inflation running at 18.2% amid high energy prices and shortages of salad vegetable because of bad weather in Europe.
BlackRock is eating the world. Assets under Management (AUM) back above $9tn.
Crypto: bitcoin, ethereum, DeFi & NFTs
Bitcoin’s surge past $30k only a start. Eye-popping 83% rally in Bitcoin this year has not been matched by newer coins. Ether, which greatly outperformed Bitcoin from 2020 and 2021, up 71%.
The HODL secret of Bitcoin's success: Bitcoin hoarding in personal wallets signals support after jump >$30k.
Ether price cracks $2K amid staking withdrawals enabled post-Shapella upgrade. ETH has crossed the $2,000 mark after the much-awaited Shanghai and Capella upgrade that was implemented into the Ethereum mainnet.
Less than 1% of staked ETH estimated to be sold after Shapella: the top 100 DeFi tokens surged along with the broader crypto market as the total value locked peaked at a new yearly high of over $54 billion.
Solana’s Crypto-Ready ‘Saga’ Smartphone Goes on Sale May 8. The Saga aims to put crypto in people’s pockets, where the rest of the digital world has already gone.
Fight between crypto and governments “just getting started”, says ShapeShift CEO. The crypto industry needs to prepare for increasing government pressure as it ramps up its challenge to the State monopoly over money, says ShapeShift CEO Erik Voorhees.
Anthony Scaramucci is bullish as ever, says Bitcoin is 'definitely a commodity’. The SkyBridge Capital CEO won’t call himself a Bitcoin maxi, but he’s more confident in the coin than he’s ever been.
LSEG teams with digital trading platform to offer bitcoin futures and options. Britain, which aims to become a global hub for crypto technology, launched a public consultation earlier this year on future rules for cryptoassets, which are currently unregulated.
The Purse Podcast
We cover the following in our conversation:
How to build a global lingerie brand
Working with a private equity partner
ESG and impact investing
How women are changing business
Women in the workplace
Some of the toughest business moments and what it takes to overcome them
How Tracy started angel investing
And how more women can start investing in early stage businesses.
Please enjoy! Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify+
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There’s good reason why strong female role models deter other women from aiming for the top.
We’d love to hear from you. Get in touch with Jana via the The Purse website or tweet @jointhepurse and janicka.
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The Purse provides content for informational purposes only, we do not provide investment advice. Please do your own research or speak to a financial adviser.
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